By Kunle Oderemi And Taiwo Amodu
THE next general election is less than two years away. In the eyes of the law and the average Nigerian, incumbent governors have up till next year May to deliver on their mandate.
But those familiar with the mindsets of political office holders know that governance often takes flight two years to the next elections.
2022 is the year when the parties will conduct primaries and conventions to pick their candidates.
The battle for who gets what in the dominant parties: the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the All Progressives Congress (APC) especially will reach its crescendo. In the main opposition PDP and the ruling APC the governors hold the levers of power through their governors’ forum.
Nigerian Tribune identifies governors to look out for, across parties in the unnerving, fever pitch politicking that will precede the 2023 general election.
Mai Mala Buni
The Yobe State governor doubles as the acting Chairman of the APC. The former national secretary of the ruling party was drafted to the APC national secretariat in June 2020, following the ouster of the party national chairman, Comrade Adams Oshiomhole through a pronouncement of the Court of Appeal and the dissolution of the National Working Committee (NWC) under his leadership by the APC National Executive Committee at an emergency meeting held at the Presidential Villa.
Buni is expected to preside over the process that will produce the party governorship candidates in Ekiti and Osun states and the convention expected to hold next month.
The set of national officers that will emerge will ultimately conduct the presidential convention of the party.
Meanwhile, speculation is rife that Buni has been anointed as a vice presidential hopeful by some of his colleagues in the influential Progressives Governors’ Forum.
He has been combining the duty of an elected governor (Yobe State) with the function of the leader of the APC.
The dual status remains a subject of controversy, even within the rank and file of the ruling APC. His traducers claim his tenure as APC chairman has only compounded the intraparty crisis in the ruling party thus the controversies trailing the conduct of ward, local government and state congress held by the party.
In the midst of the deadlock over the congress is the uncertainty over the holding of a convention to elect substantive national officers.
The indecision has given rise to speculations about a hidden agenda by the interim leadership to railroad the process of electing substantive national officers.
Nyesom Wike
Governor Nyesom Wike of Rivers State is believed to have the war chest to prosecute any political battle. He constitutes a major part of the face of the opposition in the country.
But at home, Wike has not been less controversial because of his actions and utterances.
So, he contends with different categories of political adversaries.
He has a sour relationship with some traditional rulers because of his style of leadership.
The same applies to some key members of the political class from the state, including Honourable Rotimi Amaechi and others mostly from the opposition APC.
His best friends in the past appear to have become his most daring foes, politically speaking, over irreconcilable differences.
There is distrust over his body language and utterances in the race for his likely successor.
He succeeded in installing the immediate past national chairman of PDP and played a crucial role in the emergence of Dr Iyorchia Ayu.
He is believed to be nursing a presidential ambition in case PDP chooses to go for a southern presidential standard-bearer or vice president if the post of president is zoned to the North.
Either ways, he has a lot of powerful forces to contend with because of the ongoing variegated alliances and permutations ahead of party primaries.
The Rivers governor has been in the news of recent over his crusade for normative fiscal federalism.
The Rivers State Government had last year through the state House of Assembly, enacted the Rivers State Value Added (Tax) No. 4, 2021, which makes it a legitimate right of the state to collect VAT.
The law generated a suit at the Supreme Court with the Attorney General of the Federation and Minister of Justice , Abubakar Malami (SAN) filing a suit to seek judicial interpretation on VAT collection by the Federal Inland Revenue Services (FIRS).
A Federal High Court in Port Harcourt, last September, dismissed an application by the FIRS, seeking to stop the Rivers State government from enforcing an earlier court judgment vesting the power to collect VAT within Rivers on the state government and not FIRS.
Will Wike falter in his battle with the Federal Government over the “illegal” VAT collection by the FIRS?
Aside the legal battle, the Rivers governor is a strong voice within the PDP Governors Forum. Having dislodged his estranged friend, Uche Secondus as national chairman of the PDP, is the coast now clear for his rumoured presidential ambition?
Wike was reported on Monday to have endorsed his Bauchi state counterpart, Bala Mohammed presidential ambition. What does Wike had up his sleeves? Has he shelved his gaze the topmost political office in the country to run as Vice Presidential candidate?
Atiku Abubakar Bagudu
The Kebbi State Governor is the chairman of the forum of APC governors. Party sources describe him as the link between the Buhari kitchen cabinet derisively labelled as the Villa cabal and the APC national secretariat now christened Buhari House.
The Kebbi governor is the arrowhead of the governors’ Forum that ousted Comrade Oshiomhole and installed Governor Buni as the chairman of the APC Caretaker/ Extraordinary Convention Planning Committee.
Governor Bagudu, along with his colleagues, also overwhelmed the federal lawmakers as the latter lost out in the struggle to ensure that direct primary remained the sole option open to parties to pick their candidates.
Ahead of the APC convention, chairmanship aspirants have been courting the attention and favour of the APC governors to the consternation and disaffection of other stakeholders.
Will Bagudu and his colleagues also ensure that their anointed choice emerge as national chairman in February?
Abdullahi Ganduje
He has a thick skin for criticism. He has often shaken off strident and scathing remarks by perceived traducers with uncommon equanimity and calm.
But he is currently rattled by his seeming loss of a firm grip on the political structure of his party in Kano State to his arch rival and former governor of the state, Senator Ibrahim Shakarau.
The protracted crisis poses a big risk to the political career of the governor who is speculated to be interested in the post of vice president of the country.
The Kano State governor is embroiled in a war of attrition with certain chieftains of the APC for the control of the party structures in the North-West state.
Those plotting to outsmart the governor include a former governor of the state and senator representing Kano Central, Mallam Ibrahim Shekarau and his Kano North senatorial district counterpart, Barau Jibrin.
A federal High Court sitting in Maitama, Abuja had since voided the ward and state congresses conducted by the Governor Ganduje faction, which produced Abdullahi Abbas as chairman.
By virtue of the court pronouncement, Ahmadu Haruna Zago (Danzago), who emerged at the parallel congress conducted by the Senator Shekarau faction, had effectively emerged as the chairman of the Kano APC chapter.
The Kano governor, in a recent remarks that unsettled his loyalists, said he is anxious to seek peace with the Senator Shekarau faction.
Party source told the Nigerian Tribune that former Lagos State governor and presidential hopeful, Bola Tinubu is pulling the string for the peace deal in Kano.
A senator from the North-East told the Nigerian Tribune in confidence that the Kano governor ran into troubled waters because of his open support for Tinubu’s presidential ambition.
With the scenario playing out in Kano State, Ganduje might lose the opportunity to anoint his successor. Will he in the macabre game of self preservation, buckle under pressure and keep Tinubu at an arm’s length, politically or stick to the former Lagos State governor?
Gboyega Oyetola
Governor Adegboyega Oyetola has a date with history at the APC primaries ahead of the next July governorship poll in Osun State.
Described as a silent and smooth administrator, he has weathered the storm created in governance by the immediate past state administration and ushered in a new vista.
But he is faced with a stiff opposition and challenge from a section of the APC in Osun that has tentacles with his predecessor, and current Minister of Interior, Mr Rauf Aregbesola.
Some of the forces are said to be ready to play the spoiler’s role and get their pound of flesh at the governorship poll.
The reticent Osun State governor is set to seek a fresh mandate in July when the governorship election scheduled by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) is set to hold.
The APC primary fixed for March 5 is taken as a fait accompli as the Osun governor who, incidentally is a member of the APC Caretaker Committee, has firmly secured his grip on the party structures after the congresses.
For Oyetola, the first enemy is within. Leading the anti- Oyetola camp in Osun is the immediate past governor and Minister of Interior, Rauf Aregbesola.
In league with the minister are a former deputy Speaker, House of Representatives, Lasun Yussuff and a former Secretary to the State Government, Moshood Adeoti.
Nigerian Tribune checks revealed that a trouble-shooting initiative by the Yobe governor and Chairman of the CECPC, Governor Buni met a brick wall as the Aregbesola camp remained adamant in their demand for harmonisation of the APC Osun executive.
For a sitting governor, who has been adjudged as having attained landmark feats by civil servants, artisans and eminent citizens in the South-West state, his greatest encumbrance to a fresh mandate is the internal dissension within his party.
Aminu Tambuwal
In his chequered political career, Governor Aminu Tambuwal has fought many daring battles and triumphed.
His meteoric rise from being a lawyer to politician is full of intrigues. From being the Speaker, House of Representatives to governor from 2015 till date, he has hit the limelight, acting as a veritable bridge-builder and peace ambassador, especially at a very delicate period in the last few years.
He has promised to unveil his fresh bid for the presidency any moment from now. Even before he does that, the Sultan of Sokoto, Alhaji Abubakar has let his support for the bid; ditto the governor of Delta State, Dr Ifeanyi Okowa.
Tambuwal has consistently claimed that zoning has no place in the PDP Constitution and what matters is competence.
Babagana Zulum
Governor of the insurgency-ravaged Borno State has been rated very high because of his superlative performance amidst the distraction to quality governance thrown up by the terror gang, Boko Haram.
In the politics of his heavily polarised APC, Governor Zulum is perceived as a fence sitter, who fraternises with all power blocs within his party. In national politics, will he be a major part of a team that will be at the top?
In his North East zone, there are about four aspirants seeking the position of national chairman. Two of them are from Borno State: Senators Ali Modu Sheriff and Kashim Shettima.
Who will Professor Zulum ask the Borno delegates to vote for?
Governors in the dominant political parties have been known to deny chairmanship aspirant from their state the strategic support in order to avoid the supremacy battle that may ensue. In many quarters, Zulum is considered a real asset that could complement a sound and progressive presidential hopeful.
He is seen as capable of raising the bar of governance. But he is said to be focused and determined on his current vision of repositioning Borno, notwithstanding its years of security challenges.
Apart from the commitment of the governor to his efforts to rescue Borno from the seeming ruins occasioned by insurgency, elders and leaders of thought, including elders from the state are totally disposed to their governor securing a second term of four years in office to consolidate his lofty achievements in office.
Bello Aminu Masari
Governor Aminu Masari of Katsina State is almost asphyxiated by the burden of being the chief executive officer of the state where the president, Muhammadu Buhari comes from.
In the face of overwhelming security issues in the state, the governor now leads the advocacy that citizens bear arms for the purpose of selfdefence.
Terrorists have almost made life meaningless in the state and his proposition underscores state failure to perform its cardinal function: protection of lives and property.
Last year, Governor Masari approved the deployment of 30,000 trained vigilantes to the 34 local government areas of the state to complement security presence, especially in the rural communities.
Kayode Fayemi
The Ekiti State governor is the chairman of the forum of the 36 state governors, the Nigerian Governors Forum, the strategic office that confers on him the responsibility of taking the front seat in the interface among the governors, the presidency and the leadership of the National Assembly. The office apparently confers certain privileges on its occupant.
A fresh governorship election will hold in June in Ekiti, which is a prelude to Fayemi’s exit as governor of the state.
Already the ruling APC state chapter is torn between the loyalists of Governor Fayemi, estranged benefactor, Bola Tinubu and the governor’s sympathisers.
A former Minister of State for Works under the Goodluck Jonathan administration, Prince Dayo Adeyeye, who is the coordinator of the South-West Agenda for Asiwaju (SWAGA) is leading the anti-Fayemi camp in Ekiti State.
Will Fayemi, who is rumoured to be nursing a presidential ambition, install his successor in Ekiti? Ahead of the 2023 presidential election, will he be given a bloodied nose at the home front? Will he triumph at home?
This and many more will be revealed this election campaign year. Already, there are issues over the road to APC governorship primary, with the party balkanized over zoning, endorsement brouhaha and acknowledgment and recognition for loyalty and sacrifice made by one or two of the contestants to the political career of the governor at a very critical stage in the past.
The former Minister for Solid Minerals needs to consolidate his grip on the political space of Ekiti to accentuate his touted presidential ambition.
His position as the chairman, Nigeria Governors Forum (NGF), has enhanced his visibility in the last few years. He is seen as a bridge builder, friend to many across the geopolitical divides.
Will this work for him as the PDP seems poised to create an upset in the planned governorship poll and will his, cosmopolitan and nationalistic outlook work for him as the APC shops for presidential candidate?
Yahaya Bello
Not many appear to take Governor Yahaya Bello of Kogi State serious about his bid for the presidency in 2023.
Nonetheless, the governor remains undaunted in his quest to lead the country, appealing to the sentiments of the youths based on their numerical strength to do the magic.
However, there is what some APC leaders in the Kogi likened to the peace of the graveyard in the state chapter of the party, due lack of inclusiveness.
According to them, the party has been emasculated by the powers-that-be.
Coupled with the obstacles before the governor is the PDP waiting in the wings before deploying its machinery that once made the party the darling and toast of Kogi voters.
And there is the raging battle for supremacy between the Abuja cum Lagos APC and the authorities at home.
Despite scathing indictment of his administration by politicians in his home state, across party divides Bello has insisted that he is the best to have occupied Lugard House in the history of the state.
While some of his colleagues are denying their presidential aspirations, telling journalists that they are still consulting, Governor Bello had said he has what it takes to succeed President Buhari.
Feelers from the party national secretariat however revealed that Governor Bello’s ambition does not enjoy the support of his colleagues in the Forum of APC Governors. His counterpart in Niger State, Abubakar Sani Bello and the Nasarawa State governor, Abdullahi Sule, are smarting to ensure that the North-Central zone clinches the exalted office of national chairman at the convention.
A national chairman from any of the North-Central state would have undermined and ultimately put Governor Bello’s aspiration in jeopardy.
Seyi Makinde
Governor Oluwaseyi Makinde of Oyo State has proved to be a real agent of reconciliation in the SouthWest PDP.
His interventions have restored relative stability, but some party buffs claim that the current peace remains threatened by issues of ego, marginalisation, divide-and-rule tactics and ‘breach of mutual agreement among party members.
Many say they still look forward to the governor for patronage and collaboration, more than two years after the coalition of parties ousted the APC from power in Oyo State.
According to them, the current bottled emotions might be let loose at the threshold of party primaries for the 2023 general election.
He is the only PDP governor from the SouthWest, thus all presidential aspirants will want him on their side.
Like his next door neighbour, the Osun State governor, Makinde’s achievements in office has endeared him to the Oyo State electorate.
His stature as the leader of the party in his state and zone has conferred enormous responsibilities and challenges on him; it has also courted for him political foes.
The battle for zonal leadership of the PDP pitched him against a former Ekiti State governor and former Chairman of the PDP Governors Forum, Ayodele Fayose. Fayose’s candidate, Chief Eddy Olafeso lost to anointed candidate of Seyi Makinde, Taofeek Arapaja, leaving the former Ekiti governor with a bruised ego.
The Oyo governor has also been alleged to be promoting the interest of a certain candidate in Osun PDP ahead of the party primary in the state.
His rising profile has swelled the rank of politicians within his party and the APC smarting for showdown with him ahead next general elections.
Bala Mohammed
The former Minister of the Federal Capital Territory is the governor of Bauchi State. He leaves no one in doubt about his 2023 presidential aspiration.
Governor Mohammed was the chairman of the PDP 2019 post-Election Review Committee, which in its report submitted to the Uche Secondus-led National Working Committee (NWC) recommended that merit, not zoning, be given consideration in whoever emerges the PDP standardbearer for the 2023 presidential election.
Governor Mohammed, who sits atop a somewhat cosmopolitan state in the North-East, is scheming to benefit from his committee’s report.
Rivers State governor, Nyesom Wike has since given a tacit blessing to the Bauchi governor’s aspiration.
Babajide Sanwo-Olu
For Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu, his bid for a second term on the ticket of APC is not in doubt. He has a political godfather in national leader of the party, Senator Bola Tinubu, whose presidential aspiration is enjoying a blitz of publicity and discourse across the country.
However, Governor Sanwo-Olu might face a degree of opposition from some forces outside Lagos APC in a war of proxies.
Their main objective will be to gain some advantage over his principal in the long run but not necessarily to deny APC of victory at the poll.
More fundamentally, the fallouts of the October 2020 #Endsars protests constitute what some observers described as an albatross for the governor and the APC.
The recommendations of the investigative panel set up by the state government on the protest at Lekki tollgate are likely to be on the front-burner despite the clarifications and proactive steps taken by the governor on the report.
However, the Lagos State governor’s profile has been boosted by his performance, supported by the quality of human resources in his cabinet.
He keeps a low profile in the politics of Buhari House, the APC national secretariat.
Is his second term ticket secured as he enjoys a warm relationship with his political godfather, Bola Tinubu?
Nasir el-Rufai
The battle for the soul of Kaduna State has always been keen and breathtaking.
It is likely to assume a more curious and fascinating dimension in 2022 in the buildup to the 2023 election year.
With the raging issues of insecurity, inter-ethnic animosity and political intolerance in the state, Governor Nasir el-Rufai might have to be at wit’s end to consolidate his grip on the Kaduna political turf.
Hope Uzodimma
Governor Hope Uzodimma of Imo State has been beset by unending security challenges since he came into office.
The crisis seems to blight whatever might be the gains of his tenure since he became governor.
His problem is compounded by the bitterness between him and his predecessor, now a serving senator, Rochas Okorocha.
Neither leader seems ready for any form of compromise despite various peace efforts by their party, APC and other vested interests.
Meanwhile, leaders of the main opposition PDP have reassembled with intent to regain power in the state via the ballot box in the next election.
Ifeanyi Okowa
The governor of Delta State, Dr Ifeanyi Okonwa is another politician to watch in the New Year. He is in the last lap of his two terms of four years each as the chief executive officer of the state.
There are speculations that one of his colleagues in the North on the PDP platform, is looking towards the direction of Okowa as running mate for the presidential poll in 2023.
Dapo Abiodun
The unbridled power tussle in Ogun APC subsists after the 2019 elections. The issues that caused the split in the state chapter of the APC seem to have defied solution, with insinuations in some quarters that the role of an external interest was contributory to the situation.
Incumbent Governor Dapo Abiodun and his predecessor, Senator Ibikunle Amosun are central in the brickbat.
However, Governor Abiodun has apparently been able to keep his eye on the ball, in spite of the cold war.