WHY PDP SHOULD NOT LIMIT THE CHOICE OF ITS PRESIDENTIAL FLAGBEARER TO THE SOUTH, AS THE NORTH HAS A STRONG CASE ON THE TICKET.
AN OPEN LETTER TO THE NATIONAL CHAIRMAN AND MAJOR STAKEHOLDERS.
By the practice of democratic culture the world over, the choice of the President or the leader of a given nation ,whatever the nomenclature, is based on qualifications, experience and competence. The question is therefore about who is best qualified to do the job, with the focus on qualifications, including academic, experience, track record, integrity, not on the geographical region or religion of the aspirant.
With regard to the above, it goes without saying that even in countries like Nigeria, where the issue of zoning or rotation becomes applicable due to some primordial factors, care must be taken to ensure that quality or merit is not sacrificed on the altar of zoning or rotation.
Without prejudice to the universal standard enunciated above, if we are talking of zoning, with particular reference to the rotation of the Presidency between the North and the South in Nigeria, a number of factors have to be considered before any assertion or agitation that it is the turn of a particular region.
Incidentally today, it appears that the clamouring is for Southern Nigeria to produce the next President. The common argument is that President Buhari, whose two terms of eight years end in May, 2023 is from the North. On the other hand, those in support of Northern President beyond 2023, insist that the calculation should be taken back to the commencement of the Fourth Republic in 1999, counting the 8 years of Chief Olusegun Obasanjo and the 6 years of Dr Goodluck Jonathan, making 14 years for the South, while the North would have served for 10 years as at May 29, 2023, given the 2 years of Umar Musa Yar’adua and the assumed 8 years of General Muhammad Buhari(rtd).
Here now is the crossroad, the critical junction, with the nagging question of where should the next President come from, North or South?
The proponents of Southern President for Nigeria in 2023 have a simple theory that after 8 years of Buhari from the North, power should automatically shift to the South. But this simple calculation has not addressed the issue of 14 years of Southern Presidents against the10 years for the North, leaving a difference of 4 years! The critical question, which nobody appears to be asking, not to talk of answering is, what happens, if a Southern becomes President now and ends up spending 8 years, which will move the South 12 years clear of the North! The question is when and how can such gap be ever redressed! Will such a situation be ever agreeable or acceptable to the North?
On the other hand, if someone from the North becomes the President and spends two terms, the North will only go 4 years ahead of the South, which appears more reasonable than allowing a region to go 12 points clear of the other. This is without prejudice to the possibility of someone emerging from either region to spend only one term, which will make the rotation faster!
To round up this first argument, the following inherent points in the above analysis should be noted:
■ A situation whereby one region will go 12 years ahead of the other may be difficult to swallow by the other region.
■ The South will be 4 years ahead of the North by 2023 and if another Northern becomes President and spends 4 years, the equation will become balance. But if he enjoys 8 years, the North will move 4 years clear, like the South did before and heaven did not fall! And when the next President comes from the South, the equation will be balanced again, in case of a 4 year tenure or the South will move 4 years ahead again, in case of two terms and the circle will continue in that order. This, to all intent and purpose, appears a better scenario than the option of 12 years gap, if our zoning or rotation mentality is anything to go by.
Your Excellency, my great leaders, away from the North South argument or the zoning malaise, one other major factor why the North should not be excluded from the contest for PDP’s ticket is that, to the best of my knowledge, the best and most formidable aspirants that our great party can boast of today are from the North. If we intend to win the next Presidential Election, we cannot afford to block the likes of Atiku Abubakar, Bukola Saraki, Aminu Tambuwa, Bala Mohammed and Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso from the race. These are Nigerians, who had kept the vision to preside over the affairs of this potentially great nation over the years, always planning and working towards the set goal, which may be derailed without a trial, if the ticket is not thrown open!
There is no doubt that the South can also boast of Presidential gladiators in the party, like Peter Obi, Anyim Pius Anyim, Nyesom Wike and others. However, if we go by experience on the job, national structures on the ground and available resources, the balance certainly and apparently tilts somewhere!
Permit me to submit at this juncture, that the furore and hoopla about power shift to the South is an APC agenda! The point to note is that the APC appeared to have bent towards a Southern candidate abnitio. The fact also is clear that the most popular Presidential materials in the APC, namely, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Yemi Osinbajo, Orji Uzor Kalu and others are from the South. Why am I sensing a game plan by the ruling party to lure us from our comfort zone to meet them at their own ground on their terms? Put in another way, I have this feeling that APC is afraid that if they pick their candidate from the South and PDP picks one of the formidable options from the North to fly its flag, the result could be predicted, hence the furore and abracadabra to blackmail us to abandon our own agenda and play their own game, using the Southern Governors Forum, as one of the platforms to achieve their hidden agenda!
This writer is not saying we cannot defeat the APC in the Presidential Election, if both parties pick candidates from the South, not really. Given the growing popularity of the PDP, after Nigerians have tasted both oil and water, in contrast to the ever diminishing image of the APC, it can be rightly assumed that the former will beat the latter in any free and fair election in Nigeria. This however, does not mean that we should abandon our party policy, based on our internal democratic culture, to dance to the unnecessary gallery, under the tune of a hidden orchestra, the voice of Jacob and the fake hand of Esau!
With the foregoing analysis, if there is still the need for an additional factor to justify the call for our party’s Presidential ticket to be thrown open, to allow aspirants from the North to exercise responsibilities, if not rights, it could be found in the fact that Nigerian Presidents from the South under the PDP umbrella account for 14 out of the 16 years enjoyed by PDP through the combined tenures of Obasanjo and Jonathan, leaving just 2 years for the North, courtesy of the truncated tenure of Umar Musa Yar’adua! This means that in the PDP, a party popular nation-wide, the Presidential Candidates had mostly emerged from the South, to be supported nation-wide, North, South, East and West.
If the above is correct, would it not be fair to at least give equal opportunities to our brothers from the North to test their popularity with the Nigerian electorate as represented by the delegates at the Presidential Primary, especially when the South cannot be said to have suffered any disadvantage in the scheme of things, with reference to power sharing, since the advent of the Fourth Republic?
All said and done, the set up as at today is conducive for a situation whereby the party can pick the Presidential Candidate from the North or wherever, without upturning any apple cart or committing any political harakiri. The scenario gives room for the universal practice of going for the best hand to do the job and PDP cannot afford to miss the opportunity of picking the best material in the search of the capable President to save Nigeria from the precipice of imminent collapse!
In conclusion, it is clear to all and sundry that history beckons, as the citizenry look up to the PDP to salvage the nation from the doldrums into which the APC administration of the past seven years had dragged it! We cannot afford to fail!
Your Party Faithful,
John Ola Mafo.
